Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
