Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
